01
Win rate
The share of completed trades that close positive.
A browser-only risk instrument
Measure the drawdown your sizing can create.
Ruin Odds estimates the probability of a 50% drawdown within twelve months from your trading-system inputs. It is a probability under declared assumptions, not a prediction or forecast.
Run the assessment
Free to use. Runs entirely in your browser. No account or email required.
Four inputs
The system enters before the simulation.
Average loss is fixed at 1R. Your stop is the unit. Everything is measured against it.
02
Average win
Measured in R, where the stop is the unit of risk.
03
Risk per trade
The fraction of current equity exposed on each trade.
04
Trades per year
The number of independent opportunities the model evaluates.
Sizing method
Current equity is the base.
The assessment uses fixed-fractional sizing. A win and a loss each change the account, and the next trade risks the selected fraction of that new equity.
This is why a positive arithmetic edge can still produce severe drawdowns. The model reports exposure, not a return projection.
Compliance statement
Educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.
Model limits
What this model does not know.
Assumes independent trades. Assumes a stable edge. Assumes guaranteed fills at the stop. Ignores fees and funding.
Every one of those assumptions is optimistic. Real odds are worse than this, never better.
Trade Management Mastery
Methodology deserves the same scrutiny as sizing.
The assessment is the starting point. TMM members build and test trading methodology together in the community.